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From American Research Group

Nate Silver, aka Poblano, of fivethirtyeight.com continued his losing streak this week by incorrectly predicting that Barack Obama would easily win the South Dakota Democratic primary. This followed Mr. Silver’s failure to accurately predict the outcome of the Democratic primary in Kentucky on May 20.

In Kentucky, Mr. Silver missed the turnout by 200,851 votes and he missed the vote for Hillary Clinton by 179,471 votes. This is an error rate of over 40% for turnout and over 64% for Clinton. Of the 200,851 vote error in turnout, 179,471 votes (over 89%) are from Senator Clinton.

KY Projection Actual Difference
 
Clinton 279,739 459,210 +179,471
Obama 185,028 209,903 +24,875
Other 35,237 31,742 -3,495
 
Total 500,004 700,855 +200,851

In South Dakota, Mr. Silver’s projected turnout was over 34% too high, his projection for Barack Obama was off by over 57%, and Senator Obama did not win in South Dakota as Mr. Silver so confidently predicted.

SD Projection Actual Difference
 
Clinton 62,213 54,015 -8,198
Obama 68,701 43,576 -25,125
 
Total 130,914 97,591 -33,323

Mr. Silver’s predictions provide great fuel for speculation on the Internet, but even he admits choosing from many possible outcomes when making his final predictions. His final predictions reveal his personal biases as he continues to incorrectly make causal claims from statistical associations.

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